Electricity Prices in Spain Are Rising – Should You Fix Your Tariff Before Winter?
If you live in Spain, now could be a very good time to check your electricity tariff.
Wholesale electricity prices have risen significantly compared with last summer, gas markets remain under pressure and the electricity futures market is currently pricing a considerably more expensive final quarter of 2026.
That doesn’t mean everyone’s electricity bill is suddenly going to soar, and it certainly doesn’t mean everybody should change supplier.
But it does mean your current tariff is worth reviewing before winter.
At Compare The Mercado, we review your existing electricity bill against the tariffs currently available. If you’re already on a good deal, we’ll tell you to stay exactly where you are.
What’s Happening to Electricity Prices in Spain?
The change in the wholesale electricity market has been significant.
In August 2025, Spain’s wholesale electricity market averaged approximately €68.45/MWh.
During the first 23 days of August 2026, the average had climbed to more than €124/MWh.
That’s a very substantial year-on-year increase.
Wholesale electricity isn’t the only thing that determines what appears on your electricity bill, particularly if you’re on a fixed tariff, but movements of this size matter because suppliers ultimately have to buy and hedge the electricity they sell to customers.
Why Haven’t All Electricity Bills Doubled?
This is really important.
A near doubling of the wholesale electricity price does not mean your electricity bill doubles.
Your final bill contains several different elements, including:
The price you pay for the electricity you consume
Contracted power
Regulated charges and network costs
Electricity tax
Meter rental where applicable
IVA
Any additional services attached to your contract
Your tariff also makes an enormous difference.
Someone with a competitive fixed-price contract may currently be protected from much of the movement in the wholesale market, while customers on tariffs with greater exposure to market prices can feel changes more quickly.
Electricity Taxes Have Also Changed
There has been another important change during 2026.
Electricity VAT returned to the standard 21% rate from 1 June 2026, while the standard Special Electricity Tax rate is 5.11269632%.
That means part of the increase some households have seen in their bills isn’t simply because electricity itself became more expensive.
Taxes matter too.
It’s another reason why looking only at your €/kWh rate doesn’t always tell you whether you’re getting a good deal.
What Is the Market Expecting for Winter?
This is where things become particularly interesting.
Electricity futures allow energy companies to buy or hedge electricity for delivery in future months.
They don’t tell us exactly what electricity will cost this winter, but they provide a useful indication of what the market currently expects.
During August, Spanish Q4 2026 base electricity futures have been trading at well above €110/MWh.
By 26 August, the Q4 base futures price was approximately €117.85/MWh.
For context, the average wholesale electricity market price across the whole of 2025 was approximately €65.73/MWh.
That doesn’t mean household electricity will cost 79% more this winter — the two figures shouldn’t be compared like-for-like with a domestic electricity tariff.
But it does show just how much more expensive the market currently expects electricity to be during the final months of 2026 compared with last year’s average wholesale market.
What Does Gas Have to Do With Your Electricity Bill?
Quite a lot.
Spain generates large amounts of renewable electricity, particularly from solar and wind.
However, when renewable generation isn’t sufficient to meet demand, gas-fired combined-cycle power stations can play an important role in balancing the electricity system.
That means higher gas prices can feed through into wholesale electricity prices.
European gas storage is currently around the low-60% range, according to recent market reporting.
The EU’s storage framework maintains a target of 90% before winter, although countries now have flexibility to reach that level between 1 October and 1 December and additional flexibility can apply in difficult market conditions.
This doesn’t mean Europe is about to run out of gas.
It does, however, mean gas supply, storage levels, geopolitical developments and winter temperatures remain important factors to watch.
Will Electricity Prices Definitely Rise This Winter?
No.
Nobody can responsibly guarantee that.
A mild winter, lower gas prices, strong wind and renewable generation or changes in demand could all reduce pressure on electricity prices.
Equally, a cold winter, expensive gas or weaker renewable generation could push prices higher.
The important point isn’t that prices definitely will rise.
It’s that today’s futures market is currently pricing electricity for the coming months at relatively high levels.
Could Today’s Fixed Tariffs Become More Expensive?
Potentially, yes.
Energy suppliers don’t simply invent fixed tariff prices.
They have to manage the risk of supplying electricity to customers at an agreed price while the underlying cost of electricity moves.
Futures and other hedging arrangements allow suppliers to manage that risk.
When expected future wholesale prices rise, it can therefore eventually influence the fixed tariffs suppliers are prepared to offer new customers.
That doesn’t mean every tariff will increase tomorrow.
Suppliers hedge differently, competition between companies changes and promotional offers come and go.
But there is no guarantee that today’s competitive fixed tariffs will still be available later in the year.
Should You Switch Electricity Supplier Now?
Not necessarily.
And this is one of the most important things we tell clients at Compare The Mercado.
Don’t change supplier simply because electricity prices are in the news.
First, check what you already have.
You may already be on an excellent tariff that would be foolish to give up.
Alternatively, you could be paying considerably more than necessary without realising it.
We regularly find both situations.
Check Your Electricity Tariff Before Winter
With wholesale electricity prices significantly higher than last summer and the futures market currently pricing an expensive final quarter of 2026, this is a sensible time to review your electricity contract.
Not because you should panic.
Because knowing exactly what you’re paying gives you the opportunity to make a decision while competitive tariffs are still available.
Compare The Mercado will review your electricity bill completely free of charge.
If we can improve your current tariff, we’ll show you the difference.
If we can’t, we’ll tell you to stay where you are.
There is no interruption to your electricity supply when switching supplier, and we manage the switching process for you.
Send Ana your bill today
Send us the PDF of your latest electricity bill if possible — a clear photo is also fine.
Don’t overpay. Check your tariff now.
Market information correct at 27 August 2026. Wholesale and futures prices change continually and past or current market prices do not guarantee future electricity prices.
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