War and Energy Prices – What’s Happening to Electricity and Gas in 2026?
- Ana Saez Garcia
- Mar 8
- 3 min read
Will electricity and gas prices rise again?
At Compare The Mercado, this is something we constantly monitor. Global events can influence wholesale energy markets, which can eventually affect the tariffs available to households across Spain.
Let’s break down what’s currently happening and what it could mean for your energy bill.
Why Wars Affect Energy Prices
Energy markets are global. Oil, gas, and electricity prices are heavily influenced by supply and demand.
When wars or geopolitical tensions occur, several things can happen:
Energy production may be disrupted
Shipping routes may become unsafe
Countries may restrict exports
Markets react quickly to uncertainty
For example, recent military tensions in the Middle East have raised concerns about disruptions to key shipping routes.
One of the most important is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supply passes.
If supply through this route is threatened, global markets react quickly — often pushing oil and gas prices higher.
What Is Happening to Energy Prices Right Now?
Since the latest escalation of conflict:
Oil prices have risen sharply, with Brent crude climbing above $80 per barrel
European gas prices have surged, with some markets seeing increases of up to 40% in a matter of days
Analysts warn that gas prices could rise further if supply disruptions continue
When gas prices increase, electricity prices often follow.
This is because natural gas is still widely used to generate electricity across Europe.
As a result, changes in global gas markets can eventually be reflected in household electricity bills.
What This Means for Spain
Spain is actually in a stronger position than many European countries when it comes to energy security.
There are several reasons for this.
1. High levels of renewable energy
Spain has significantly expanded its renewable energy capacity in recent years.
Wind and solar power now generate a large share of the country’s electricity, helping reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.
2. Nuclear provides stable baseload power
Nuclear energy continues to supply roughly 20% of Spain’s electricity.
Unlike gas-powered generation, nuclear output is not affected by global fuel price fluctuations.
3. Direct gas supply from Algeria
A large portion of Spain’s gas imports come directly from Algeria via the Medgaz pipeline.
This pipeline connects Algeria directly to Spain under the Mediterranean Sea.
Importantly, this route does not rely on Middle Eastern shipping lanes, which reduces exposure to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, global gas prices are still influenced by international markets, so price increases elsewhere can still impact European pricing.
4. Strong LNG infrastructure
Spain has some of the largest LNG import capacity in Europe, allowing it to receive gas shipments from multiple countries.
This diversified supply provides additional flexibility during periods of market instability.
Could Prices Rise Again?
The honest answer is it depends on how long the conflict lasts.
If tensions escalate or supply disruptions continue, we could see:
Higher gas prices
Higher wholesale electricity prices
Increased fuel costs
Broader inflationary pressure across Europe
However, if tensions ease or supply stabilises, markets could settle relatively quickly.
Energy markets tend to react rapidly — sometimes based purely on news or expectations.
What Homeowners and Expats in Spain Should Do
While global events are beyond our control, there are still steps you can take to protect yourself from rising energy costs.
✔ Review your current tariff
✔ Check whether you are on market rate or fixed pricing
✔ Ensure your contracted power (potencia) is correct
✔ Compare tariffs regularly as the market changes
Many households in Spain stay on the same energy tariff for years, even when better options are available.
How Compare The Mercado Can Help
At Compare The Mercado, we review electricity and gas tariffs across Spain to help expats find competitive contracts.
Even during periods of market volatility, it’s often possible to find better tariffs or more suitable pricing structures.
If you’d like me to review your current bill and see whether you could reduce your costs, feel free to get in touch.
📲 WhatsApp 0034 613 364 496
FAQ
Will electricity prices definitely rise because of the war?
Not necessarily. Prices depend on how long the conflict lasts and whether energy supply is disrupted.
Why does gas affect electricity prices?
Many European power plants generate electricity using natural gas. When gas prices increase, electricity prices usually follow.
Is Spain protected from global energy shocks?
Spain is better positioned than some countries due to renewable energy and strong LNG infrastructure, but global price changes can still affect the market.
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